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Vitória de Sernache vs Carapinheirense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Carapinheirense
Carapinheirense
10/18/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 3Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vitória de Sernache54%
×Draw26%
Carapinheirense20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória de Sernache
1.52
Carapinheirense
0.81

Vitória de Sernache creates 88% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vitória de Sernache
1.50
Carapinheirense
0.82

allows per match

Vitória de Sernache
0.80
Carapinheirense
1.55

finishing

Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par
Carapinheirense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória de Sernache ↓

Carapinheirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vitória de Sernache or draw
80%
Vitória de Sernache or Carapinheirense
74%
Draw or Carapinheirense
46%

Winning margin

Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
28%
Carapinheirense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
78%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
45%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
20%
Carapinheirense 1+ goals
56%
Carapinheirense 2+ goals
19%
Carapinheirense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
73%
Carapinheirense (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória de Sernache at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Carapinheirense away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.50 + Carapinheirense defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Carapinheirense attack 0.82 + Vitória de Sernache defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vitória de Sernache scores more
54%
level
26%
Carapinheirense scores more
20%

Vitória de Sernache at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vitória de Sernache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Vitória de Sernache 1–1 Carapinheirense

Vitória de Sernache and Carapinheirense drew 1-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira in Cernache do Bonjardim.