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Carapinheirense vs Vitória de Sernache — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Carapinheirense
Carapinheirense
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
3/28/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 14Complexo Desportivo São Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Carapinheirense45%
×Draw24%
Vitória de Sernache31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carapinheirense
1.65
Vitória de Sernache
1.33

Carapinheirense creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Carapinheirense
1.40
Vitória de Sernache
1.55

allows per match

Carapinheirense
1.10
Vitória de Sernache
1.91

finishing

Carapinheirense+0.00on par
Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carapinheirense ↓

Vitória de Sernache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Carapinheirense or draw
69%
Carapinheirense or Vitória de Sernache
76%
Draw or Vitória de Sernache
55%

Winning margin

Carapinheirense wins by 2+
23%
Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Carapinheirense 1+ goals
81%
Carapinheirense 2+ goals
49%
Carapinheirense 3+ goals
23%
Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
74%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
38%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Carapinheirense (draw refunded)
59%
Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carapinheirense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carapinheirense attack 1.40 + Vitória de Sernache defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.55 + Carapinheirense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Carapinheirense scores more
45%
level
24%
Vitória de Sernache scores more
31%

Carapinheirense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Carapinheirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carapinheirense vs Vitória de Sernache

Carapinheirense beat Vitória de Sernache 3-2 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo São Pedro in Carapinheira.