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Vitória de Sernache vs Benfica Castelo Branco — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
3/21/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 15Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vitória de Sernache42%
×Draw32%
Benfica Castelo Branco26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória de Sernache
1.05
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.75

Vitória de Sernache creates 40% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vitória de Sernache
1.50
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.70

allows per match

Vitória de Sernache
0.80
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.60

finishing

Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória de Sernache ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Vitória de Sernache or draw
74%
Vitória de Sernache or Benfica Castelo Branco
68%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
58%

Winning margin

Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
17%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
65%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
28%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
9%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
53%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
17%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
62%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória de Sernache at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.50 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 0.70 + Vitória de Sernache defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vitória de Sernache scores more
42%
level
32%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
26%

Vitória de Sernache at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vitória de Sernache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Vitória de Sernache 0–0 Benfica Castelo Branco

Vitória de Sernache and Benfica Castelo Branco drew 0-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira in Cernache do Bonjardim.