Benfica Castelo Branco 3–1 Vitória de Sernache

Benfica Castelo Branco

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Vitória de Sernache

11/15/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 4Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Benfica Castelo Branco51%

×Draw24%

Vitória de Sernache25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica Castelo BrancoExpected goals in this matchVitória de Sernache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.14

Benfica Castelo Branco

1.73

Vitória de Sernache

1.14

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 52% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.55

creates per match

1.55

0.73

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Benfica Castelo Branco

1.55

Vitória de Sernache

1.55

allows per match

Benfica Castelo Branco

0.73

Vitória de Sernache

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Castelo Branco ↓

Vitória de Sernache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Benfica Castelo Branco or draw

75%

Benfica Castelo Branco or Vitória de Sernache

76%

Draw or Vitória de Sernache

49%

Winning margin

Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+

28%

Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals

82%

Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals

52%

Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals

25%

Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals

68%

Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals

32%

Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)

67%

Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Castelo Branco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 1.55 + Vitória de Sernache defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.73

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.55 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Benfica Castelo Branco scores more

51%

level

24%

Vitória de Sernache scores more

25%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff