Vitoria Das Tab. W 1–1 Rio Preto W: Result & Stats

Vitoria Das Tab. W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rio Preto W

5/29/2018

Brasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitoria Das Tab. W19%

×Draw23%

Rio Preto W58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria Das Tab. WExpected goals in this matchRio Preto W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.79

Vitoria Das Tab. W

0.93

Rio Preto W

1.79

Rio Preto W creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.43

2.14

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Vitoria Das Tab. W

1.00

Rio Preto W

1.43

allows per match

Vitoria Das Tab. W

2.14

Rio Preto W

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Das Tab. W+0.00on par

Rio Preto W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Das Tab. W ↓

Rio Preto W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vitoria Das Tab. W or draw

42%

Vitoria Das Tab. W or Rio Preto W

77%

Draw or Rio Preto W

81%

Winning margin

Vitoria Das Tab. W wins by 2+

6%

Rio Preto W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Vitoria Das Tab. W 1+ goals

61%

Vitoria Das Tab. W 2+ goals

24%

Vitoria Das Tab. W 3+ goals

7%

Rio Preto W 1+ goals

83%

Rio Preto W 2+ goals

53%

Rio Preto W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Das Tab. W (draw refunded)

25%

Rio Preto W (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Das Tab. W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Rio Preto W away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Das Tab. W attack 1.00 + Rio Preto W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Rio Preto W attack 1.43 + Vitoria Das Tab. W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vitoria Das Tab. W scores more

19%

level

23%

Rio Preto W scores more

58%

Rio Preto W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rio Preto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff