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Rio Preto W vs Vitoria Das Tab. W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Rio Preto W
Rio Preto W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Vitoria Das Tab. W
Vitoria Das Tab. W
7/4/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rio Preto W72%
×Draw18%
Vitoria Das Tab. W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Preto W
2.07
Vitoria Das Tab. W
0.57

Rio Preto W creates 263% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rio Preto W
2.00
Vitoria Das Tab. W
0.57

allows per match

Rio Preto W
0.57
Vitoria Das Tab. W
2.14

finishing

Rio Preto W+0.00on par
Vitoria Das Tab. W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Preto W ↓

Vitoria Das Tab. W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rio Preto W or draw
91%
Rio Preto W or Vitoria Das Tab. W
82%
Draw or Vitoria Das Tab. W
28%

Winning margin

Rio Preto W wins by 2+
47%
Vitoria Das Tab. W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rio Preto W 1+ goals
87%
Rio Preto W 2+ goals
61%
Rio Preto W 3+ goals
34%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 1+ goals
43%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 2+ goals
11%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Rio Preto W (draw refunded)
89%
Vitoria Das Tab. W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Preto W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Vitoria Das Tab. W away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Preto W attack 2.00 + Vitoria Das Tab. W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Vitoria Das Tab. W attack 0.57 + Rio Preto W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Rio Preto W scores more
72%
level
18%
Vitoria Das Tab. W scores more
9%

Rio Preto W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Rio Preto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Rio Preto W 4–0 Vitoria Das Tab. W

Rio Preto W beat Vitoria Das Tab. W 4-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 4, 2018.