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Vitoria Das Tab. W vs Gremio Osasco Audax W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Vitoria Das Tab. W
Vitoria Das Tab. W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
3/19/2017Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vitoria Das Tab. W41%
×Draw23%
Gremio Osasco Audax W36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Das Tab. W
1.74
Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vitoria Das Tab. W
1.13
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.95

allows per match

Vitoria Das Tab. W
2.25
Gremio Osasco Audax W
2.36

finishing

Vitoria Das Tab. W+0.00on par
Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Das Tab. W ↓

Gremio Osasco Audax W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vitoria Das Tab. W or draw
64%
Vitoria Das Tab. W or Gremio Osasco Audax W
77%
Draw or Gremio Osasco Audax W
59%

Winning margin

Vitoria Das Tab. W wins by 2+
22%
Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vitoria Das Tab. W 1+ goals
82%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 2+ goals
52%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 3+ goals
25%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
80%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
47%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Das Tab. W (draw refunded)
54%
Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Das Tab. W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Das Tab. W attack 1.13 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.74

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 0.95 + Vitoria Das Tab. W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vitoria Das Tab. W scores more
41%
level
23%
Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
36%

Vitoria Das Tab. W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vitoria Das Tab. W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vitoria Das Tab. W 2 – 3 Gremio Osasco Audax W

Gremio Osasco Audax W beat Vitoria Das Tab. W 3-2 in Brasileiro Women on March 19, 2017.