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Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Vitoria Das Tab. W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria Das Tab. W
Vitoria Das Tab. W
8/15/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W48%
×Draw25%
Vitoria Das Tab. W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.57
Vitoria Das Tab. W
1.10

Gremio Osasco Audax W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.00
Vitoria Das Tab. W
0.57

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.64
Vitoria Das Tab. W
2.14

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par
Vitoria Das Tab. W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax W ↓

Vitoria Das Tab. W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax W or draw
73%
Gremio Osasco Audax W or Vitoria Das Tab. W
75%
Draw or Vitoria Das Tab. W
52%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
25%
Vitoria Das Tab. W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
79%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
46%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
21%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 1+ goals
67%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 2+ goals
30%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
64%
Vitoria Das Tab. W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Vitoria Das Tab. W away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 1.00 + Vitoria Das Tab. W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Vitoria Das Tab. W attack 0.57 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
48%
level
25%
Vitoria Das Tab. W scores more
27%

Gremio Osasco Audax W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gremio Osasco Audax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gremio Osasco Audax W 0 – 0 Vitoria Das Tab. W

Gremio Osasco Audax W and Vitoria Das Tab. W drew 0-0 in Brasileiro Women on August 15, 2018.