Vitoria Da Conquista 1–1 Galícia: Result & Stats

Vitoria Da Conquista

FT

1 – 1

Galícia

6/11/2023

Baiano - 2 · Round 5Estádio Lomanto Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vitoria Da Conquista38%

×Draw27%

Galícia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria Da ConquistaExpected goals in this matchGalícia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.19

Vitoria Da Conquista

1.27

Galícia

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

1.16

1.21

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Vitoria Da Conquista

1.00

Galícia

1.16

allows per match

Vitoria Da Conquista

1.21

Galícia

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Da Conquista+0.00on par

Galícia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Da Conquista ↓

Galícia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vitoria Da Conquista or draw

66%

Vitoria Da Conquista or Galícia

73%

Draw or Galícia

62%

Winning margin

Vitoria Da Conquista wins by 2+

17%

Galícia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vitoria Da Conquista 1+ goals

72%

Vitoria Da Conquista 2+ goals

36%

Vitoria Da Conquista 3+ goals

14%

Galícia 1+ goals

70%

Galícia 2+ goals

33%

Galícia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Da Conquista (draw refunded)

53%

Galícia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Da Conquista at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Galícia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Da Conquista attack 1.00 + Galícia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Galícia attack 1.16 + Vitoria Da Conquista defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitoria Da Conquista scores more

38%

level

27%

Galícia scores more

34%

Vitoria Da Conquista at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitoria Da Conquista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff