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Galícia vs Vitoria Da Conquista — Baiano - 2 2019

Galícia
Galícia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria Da Conquista
Vitoria Da Conquista
6/14/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 8Estádio Jodilton Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Galícia33%
×Draw29%
Vitoria Da Conquista38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galícia
1.03
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.14

Vitoria Da Conquista creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Galícia
0.90
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.28

allows per match

Galícia
1.00
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.17

finishing

Galícia+0.00on par
Vitoria Da Conquista+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galícia ↓

Vitoria Da Conquista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Galícia or draw
62%
Galícia or Vitoria Da Conquista
71%
Draw or Vitoria Da Conquista
67%

Winning margin

Galícia wins by 2+
12%
Vitoria Da Conquista wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Galícia 1+ goals
64%
Galícia 2+ goals
28%
Galícia 3+ goals
9%
Vitoria Da Conquista 1+ goals
68%
Vitoria Da Conquista 2+ goals
32%
Vitoria Da Conquista 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Galícia (draw refunded)
46%
Vitoria Da Conquista (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galícia at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Vitoria Da Conquista away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galícia attack 0.90 + Vitoria Da Conquista defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Vitoria Da Conquista attack 1.28 + Galícia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Galícia scores more
33%
level
29%
Vitoria Da Conquista scores more
38%

Vitoria Da Conquista at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitoria Da Conquista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Galícia 1–2 Vitoria Da Conquista

Vitoria Da Conquista beat Galícia 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Jodilton Souza in Feira de Santana, Bahia.