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Vitória da Conquista U20 vs Jequie U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Vitória da Conquista U20
Vitória da Conquista U20
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jequie U20
Jequie U20
3/25/2026Baiano U20Baiano U20 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vitória da Conquista U2050%
×Draw25%
Jequie U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória da Conquista U20
1.56
Jequie U20
1.03

Vitória da Conquista U20 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vitória da Conquista U20
1.71
Jequie U20
1.21

allows per match

Vitória da Conquista U20
0.86
Jequie U20
1.42

finishing

Vitória da Conquista U20+0.00on par
Jequie U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória da Conquista U20 ↓

Jequie U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vitória da Conquista U20 or draw
75%
Vitória da Conquista U20 or Jequie U20
75%
Draw or Jequie U20
50%

Winning margin

Vitória da Conquista U20 wins by 2+
26%
Jequie U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vitória da Conquista U20 1+ goals
79%
Vitória da Conquista U20 2+ goals
46%
Vitória da Conquista U20 3+ goals
21%
Jequie U20 1+ goals
64%
Jequie U20 2+ goals
28%
Jequie U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vitória da Conquista U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Jequie U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória da Conquista U20 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Jequie U20 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória da Conquista U20 attack 1.71 + Jequie U20 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Jequie U20 attack 1.21 + Vitória da Conquista U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vitória da Conquista U20 scores more
50%
level
25%
Jequie U20 scores more
25%

Vitória da Conquista U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vitória da Conquista U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitória da Conquista U20 vs Jequie U20

Vitória da Conquista U20 and Jequie U20 drew 0-0 in Baiano U20 on March 25, 2026.