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Jequie U20 vs Vitória da Conquista U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Jequie U20
Jequie U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Vitória da Conquista U20
Vitória da Conquista U20
5/2/2026Baiano U20Baiano U20 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jequie U2037%
×Draw27%
Vitória da Conquista U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jequie U20
1.25
Vitória da Conquista U20
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Jequie U20
1.05
Vitória da Conquista U20
1.15

allows per match

Jequie U20
1.26
Vitória da Conquista U20
1.45

finishing

Jequie U20+0.00on par
Vitória da Conquista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jequie U20 ↓

Vitória da Conquista U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jequie U20 or draw
65%
Jequie U20 or Vitória da Conquista U20
73%
Draw or Vitória da Conquista U20
63%

Winning margin

Jequie U20 wins by 2+
16%
Vitória da Conquista U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jequie U20 1+ goals
71%
Jequie U20 2+ goals
36%
Jequie U20 3+ goals
13%
Vitória da Conquista U20 1+ goals
70%
Vitória da Conquista U20 2+ goals
34%
Vitória da Conquista U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jequie U20 (draw refunded)
51%
Vitória da Conquista U20 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jequie U20 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Vitória da Conquista U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jequie U20 attack 1.05 + Vitória da Conquista U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vitória da Conquista U20 attack 1.15 + Jequie U20 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jequie U20 scores more
37%
level
27%
Vitória da Conquista U20 scores more
35%

Jequie U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jequie U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jequie U20 vs Vitória da Conquista U20

Vitória da Conquista U20 beat Jequie U20 2-0 in Baiano U20 on May 2, 2026.