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Vitória da Conquista U20 vs Itabuna EC U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Vitória da Conquista U20
Vitória da Conquista U20
FT
2 – 1
Itabuna EC U20
Itabuna EC U20
4/21/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estadio Edvaldo Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vitória da Conquista U2051%
×Draw26%
Itabuna EC U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória da Conquista U20
1.52
Itabuna EC U20
0.93

Vitória da Conquista U20 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vitória da Conquista U20
1.71
Itabuna EC U20
1.00

allows per match

Vitória da Conquista U20
0.86
Itabuna EC U20
1.33

finishing

Vitória da Conquista U20+0.00on par
Itabuna EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória da Conquista U20 ↓

Itabuna EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vitória da Conquista U20 or draw
77%
Vitória da Conquista U20 or Itabuna EC U20
74%
Draw or Itabuna EC U20
49%

Winning margin

Vitória da Conquista U20 wins by 2+
26%
Itabuna EC U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vitória da Conquista U20 1+ goals
78%
Vitória da Conquista U20 2+ goals
45%
Vitória da Conquista U20 3+ goals
20%
Itabuna EC U20 1+ goals
61%
Itabuna EC U20 2+ goals
24%
Itabuna EC U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vitória da Conquista U20 (draw refunded)
69%
Itabuna EC U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória da Conquista U20 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Itabuna EC U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória da Conquista U20 attack 1.71 + Itabuna EC U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Itabuna EC U20 attack 1.00 + Vitória da Conquista U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vitória da Conquista U20 scores more
51%
level
26%
Itabuna EC U20 scores more
23%

Vitória da Conquista U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vitória da Conquista U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Vitória da Conquista U20 2–1 Itabuna EC U20

Vitória da Conquista U20 beat Itabuna EC U20 2-1 in Baiano U20 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Edvaldo Flores in Vitória da Conquista, Bahia.