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Itabuna EC U20 vs Vitória da Conquista U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Itabuna EC U20
Itabuna EC U20
FT
1 – 0
Vitória da Conquista U20
Vitória da Conquista U20
4/13/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio José Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Itabuna EC U2038%
×Draw27%
Vitória da Conquista U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabuna EC U20
1.31
Vitória da Conquista U20
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Itabuna EC U20
1.17
Vitória da Conquista U20
1.15

allows per match

Itabuna EC U20
1.33
Vitória da Conquista U20
1.45

finishing

Itabuna EC U20+0.00on par
Vitória da Conquista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna EC U20 ↓

Vitória da Conquista U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Itabuna EC U20 or draw
65%
Itabuna EC U20 or Vitória da Conquista U20
73%
Draw or Vitória da Conquista U20
62%

Winning margin

Itabuna EC U20 wins by 2+
17%
Vitória da Conquista U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Itabuna EC U20 1+ goals
73%
Itabuna EC U20 2+ goals
38%
Itabuna EC U20 3+ goals
14%
Vitória da Conquista U20 1+ goals
71%
Vitória da Conquista U20 2+ goals
35%
Vitória da Conquista U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Itabuna EC U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Vitória da Conquista U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna EC U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Vitória da Conquista U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna EC U20 attack 1.17 + Vitória da Conquista U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vitória da Conquista U20 attack 1.15 + Itabuna EC U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Itabuna EC U20 scores more
38%
level
27%
Vitória da Conquista U20 scores more
35%

Itabuna EC U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Itabuna EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itabuna EC U20 vs Vitória da Conquista U20

Itabuna EC U20 beat Vitória da Conquista U20 1-0 in Baiano U20 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio José Silveira in São José da Vitória, Bahia.