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Vitória BA W vs Kindermann W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Vitória BA W
Vitória BA W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kindermann W
Kindermann W
3/29/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Manoel Barradas (Salvador, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vitória BA W30%
×Draw25%
Kindermann W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória BA W
1.22
Kindermann W
1.53

Kindermann W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

creates per match

Vitória BA W
0.79
Kindermann W
1.11

allows per match

Vitória BA W
1.95
Kindermann W
1.65

finishing

Vitória BA W+0.00on par
Kindermann W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória BA W ↓

Kindermann W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vitória BA W or draw
56%
Vitória BA W or Kindermann W
75%
Draw or Kindermann W
70%

Winning margin

Vitória BA W wins by 2+
13%
Kindermann W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vitória BA W 1+ goals
70%
Vitória BA W 2+ goals
34%
Vitória BA W 3+ goals
12%
Kindermann W 1+ goals
78%
Kindermann W 2+ goals
45%
Kindermann W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vitória BA W (draw refunded)
41%
Kindermann W (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória BA W at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Kindermann W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória BA W attack 0.79 + Kindermann W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.22

Kindermann W attack 1.11 + Vitória BA W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vitória BA W scores more
30%
level
25%
Kindermann W scores more
44%

Kindermann W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Vitória BA W 0–2 Kindermann W

Kindermann W beat Vitória BA W 2-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Manoel Barradas (Salvador, Bahia).