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Kindermann W vs Vitória BA W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Kindermann W
Kindermann W
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Vitória BA W
Vitória BA W
2/8/2020Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Carlos Alberto Costa Neves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Kindermann W67%
×Draw19%
Vitória BA W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kindermann W
2.26
Vitória BA W
0.93

Kindermann W creates 143% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kindermann W
1.88
Vitória BA W
0.70

allows per match

Kindermann W
1.16
Vitória BA W
2.65

finishing

Kindermann W+0.00on par
Vitória BA W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindermann W ↓

Vitória BA W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kindermann W or draw
86%
Kindermann W or Vitória BA W
81%
Draw or Vitória BA W
33%

Winning margin

Kindermann W wins by 2+
44%
Vitória BA W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kindermann W 1+ goals
89%
Kindermann W 2+ goals
66%
Kindermann W 3+ goals
39%
Vitória BA W 1+ goals
61%
Vitória BA W 2+ goals
24%
Vitória BA W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kindermann W (draw refunded)
83%
Vitória BA W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindermann W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Vitória BA W away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindermann W attack 1.88 + Vitória BA W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.26

Vitória BA W attack 0.70 + Kindermann W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kindermann W scores more
67%
level
19%
Vitória BA W scores more
14%

Kindermann W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kindermann W vs Vitória BA W

Kindermann W beat Vitória BA W 7-0 in Brasileiro Women on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Carlos Alberto Costa Neves in Caçador, Santa Catarina.