Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vítkovice vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vítkovice
Vítkovice
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
L. Raab 49'
P. Drbal 82'
A. Fila 51', 2'
J. Kolacny 16'
9/3/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 5Fotbalové hřiště Markvartovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vítkovice31%
×Draw24%
Slovan Rosice45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vítkovice
1.34
Slovan Rosice
1.65

Slovan Rosice creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vítkovice
1.45
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Vítkovice
2.03
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Vítkovice+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vítkovice ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vítkovice or draw
55%
Vítkovice or Slovan Rosice
76%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
69%

Winning margin

Vítkovice wins by 2+
14%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vítkovice 1+ goals
74%
Vítkovice 2+ goals
39%
Vítkovice 3+ goals
15%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
81%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
49%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Vítkovice (draw refunded)
41%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vítkovice at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vítkovice attack 1.45 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Vítkovice defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vítkovice scores more
31%
level
24%
Slovan Rosice scores more
45%

Slovan Rosice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. Fila
16'
J. Kolacny
30'
L. Raab
49'
L. Raab
50'
P. Novak
50'
M. Motycka
51'
A. Fila
71'
M. Krsak← M. Krsak
71'
D. Prerovsky← D. Prerovsky
73'
J. Tkac← J. Tkac
79'
J. Jelen← J. Jelen
82'
M. Richtar
82'
P. Drbal
83'
M. Cacek← M. Cacek
85'
T. Mutina← T. Mutina
87'
P. Kral← P. Kral

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vítkovice vs Slovan Rosice

Slovan Rosice beat Vítkovice 4-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 3, 2022.

Goals: A. Fila (2', 51'), J. Kolacny (16'), L. Raab (49'), P. Drbal (82').

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Markvartovice in Markvartovice.