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Slovan Rosice vs Vítkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vítkovice
Vítkovice
J. Krela 61'
M. Richtar 49'
4/1/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 22Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Slovan Rosice61%
×Draw22%
Vítkovice17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
1.88
Vítkovice
0.88

Slovan Rosice creates 114% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Vítkovice
0.91

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Vítkovice
2.15

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Vítkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Vítkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
83%
Slovan Rosice or Vítkovice
78%
Draw or Vítkovice
39%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
36%
Vítkovice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
85%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
56%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
29%
Vítkovice 1+ goals
59%
Vítkovice 2+ goals
22%
Vítkovice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
78%
Vítkovice (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Vítkovice away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Vítkovice defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.88

Vítkovice attack 0.91 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
61%
level
22%
Vítkovice scores more
17%

Slovan Rosice at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
U. Aririerisim
46'
M. Repa← M. Repa
46'
P. Stanimirovic← J. Krela
49'
M. Richtar
55'
D. Prerovsky← D. Prerovsky
55'
T. Dobrovodsky← T. Dobrovodsky
55'
D. Kotasek← D. Kotasek
61'
J. Krela
64'
M. Krsak← M. Krsak
66'
D. Prerovsky
69'
R. Chylek← R. Chylek
70'
M. Krsak
77'
M. Burgo
77'
E. Sedlacek← E. Sedlacek
80'
J. Tamajka← J. Tamajka
89'
R. Chylek
89'
R. Buchta
90'
J. Keno← J. Keno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Rosice vs Vítkovice

Vítkovice beat Slovan Rosice 2-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 1, 2023.

Goals: M. Richtar (49'), J. Krela (61').

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.