Vítkovice 4–1 Řepiště: Result & Stats

Vítkovice

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Řepiště

4/27/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 23Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vítkovice67%

×Draw17%

Řepiště16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VítkoviceExpected goals in this matchŘepiště

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.19

Vítkovice

2.60

Řepiště

1.19

Vítkovice creates 118% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 30 away

2.13

creates per match

0.97

1.40

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Vítkovice

2.13

Řepiště

0.97

allows per match

Vítkovice

1.40

Řepiště

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vítkovice+0.00on par

Řepiště+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vítkovice ↓

Řepiště →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vítkovice or draw

84%

Vítkovice or Řepiště

83%

Draw or Řepiště

33%

Winning margin

Vítkovice wins by 2+

46%

Řepiště wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vítkovice 1+ goals

92%

Vítkovice 2+ goals

73%

Vítkovice 3+ goals

47%

Řepiště 1+ goals

70%

Řepiště 2+ goals

33%

Řepiště 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vítkovice (draw refunded)

81%

Řepiště (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vítkovice at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 47 matches

Řepiště away — creates 0.97, concedes 3.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vítkovice attack 2.13 + Řepiště defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.60

Řepiště attack 0.97 + Vítkovice defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vítkovice scores more

67%

level

17%

Řepiště scores more

16%

Vítkovice at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vítkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff