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Řepiště vs Vítkovice — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Řepiště
Řepiště
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vítkovice
Vítkovice
9/23/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 8Řepiště trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Řepiště28%
×Draw20%
Vítkovice52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Řepiště
1.61
Vítkovice
2.26

Vítkovice creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 49 away

creates per match

Řepiště
1.53
Vítkovice
2.55

allows per match

Řepiště
1.97
Vítkovice
1.69

finishing

Řepiště+0.00on par
Vítkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Řepiště ↓

Vítkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Řepiště or draw
48%
Řepiště or Vítkovice
80%
Draw or Vítkovice
72%

Winning margin

Řepiště wins by 2+
13%
Vítkovice wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Řepiště 1+ goals
80%
Řepiště 2+ goals
48%
Řepiště 3+ goals
22%
Vítkovice 1+ goals
89%
Vítkovice 2+ goals
66%
Vítkovice 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Řepiště (draw refunded)
35%
Vítkovice (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Řepiště at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Vítkovice away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Řepiště attack 1.53 + Vítkovice defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vítkovice attack 2.55 + Řepiště defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Řepiště scores more
28%
level
20%
Vítkovice scores more
52%

Vítkovice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vítkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Řepiště 2–0 Vítkovice

Řepiště beat Vítkovice 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Řepiště trava in Řepiště.