Vitez 1–0 Tuzla City: Result & Stats

Vitez

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tuzla City

H. Dilaver 69' (pen)

4/18/2026

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vitez59%

×Draw24%

Tuzla City16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitezExpected goals in this matchTuzla City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.71

Vitez

1.63

Tuzla City

0.71

Vitez creates 130% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 27 away

1.07

creates per match

0.48

0.93

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Vitez

1.07

Tuzla City

0.48

allows per match

Vitez

0.93

Tuzla City

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitez+0.00on par

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitez ↓

Tuzla City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vitez or draw

84%

Vitez or Tuzla City

76%

Draw or Tuzla City

41%

Winning margin

Vitez wins by 2+

33%

Tuzla City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vitez 1+ goals

80%

Vitez 2+ goals

48%

Vitez 3+ goals

22%

Tuzla City 1+ goals

51%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

16%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vitez (draw refunded)

79%

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitez at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitez attack 1.07 + Tuzla City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tuzla City attack 0.48 + Vitez defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vitez scores more

59%

level

24%

Tuzla City scores more

16%

Vitez at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'

H. DilaverPenalty

Vitez

Tuzla

Manager: I. Bonić

Manager: S. Petrović