Tuzla City 2–1 Vitez: Result & Stats

Tuzla City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vitez

A. Spahic 53'

J. Berbic 45'

P. Kolenda 64'

9/27/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion BARE

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tuzla City52%

×Draw25%

Vitez24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuzla CityExpected goals in this matchVitez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.03

Tuzla City

1.64

Vitez

1.03

Tuzla City creates 59% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 15 away

1.48

creates per match

0.87

1.19

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Tuzla City

1.48

Vitez

0.87

allows per match

Tuzla City

1.19

Vitez

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Vitez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw

76%

Tuzla City or Vitez

75%

Draw or Vitez

48%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+

27%

Vitez wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals

81%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

49%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

23%

Vitez 1+ goals

64%

Vitez 2+ goals

28%

Vitez 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

68%

Vitez (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Vitez away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + Vitez defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Vitez attack 0.87 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tuzla City scores more

52%

level

25%

Vitez scores more

24%

Tuzla City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

J. Berbic

53'

A. Spahic

64'

P. Kolenda

Tuzla

Vitez

Manager: S. Petrović

Manager: I. Bonić