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Vitesse vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

Vitesse
Vitesse
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
MVV
MVV
4/17/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 37GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Vitesse66%
×Draw19%
MVV15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitesse
2.19
MVV
0.92

Vitesse creates 138% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vitesse
1.78
MVV
0.85

allows per match

Vitesse
0.99
MVV
2.59

finishing

Vitesse-0.53scores less
MVV-0.42scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

MVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw
85%
Vitesse or MVV
81%
Draw or MVV
34%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+
42%
MVV wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals
89%
Vitesse 2+ goals
64%
Vitesse 3+ goals
37%
MVV 1+ goals
60%
MVV 2+ goals
23%
MVV 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)
82%
MVV (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 8 matches

MVV away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.59 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.78 + MVV defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.19

MVV attack 0.85 + Vitesse defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Vitesse scores more
66%
level
19%
MVV scores more
15%

Vitesse at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
S. WesterveldMVVMVV · G
8.5

Match Events

36'
Ilano Silva Timas
46'
X. Thenu← A. Buttner
60'
Jael Pawaridihadjo
65'
E. Huth← M. Marschalk
69'
M. Kuipers← J. Pawirodihardjo
69'
A. Kassimi← D. Asante
72'
Dillon Hoogewerf
73'
Ilias Breugelmans
80'
A. Zaian← A. Beydts
81'
Y. Ranon← M. Schikora
87'
M. Bouhekan← D. Hoogewerf
90+3'
Nathan Markelo
90+3'
Stan Van Dessel
90+1'
T. de Jong← S. Braken

Possession

66%Vitesse

Shots

15Vitesse

Pass accuracy

53%Vitesse

Statistics

VitesseMVV
Overview
66%Possession34%
15Total Shots8
1.64Expected Goals (xG)0.83
9Corners1
11Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots8
4On Target4
8Off Target3
3Blocked1
10Inside Box3
5Outside Box5
Passing
66%Possession34%
509Total Passes273
416Accurate Passes196
82%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls17
2Yellow Cards4
3Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Vitesse 0–0 MVV

Vitesse and MVV drew 0-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 17, 2026.

Vitesse controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.