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MVV vs Vitesse — Eerste Divisie 2018

MVV
MVV
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vitesse
Vitesse
R. Esajas 81'
B. Smeets 57'
A. Büttner 88' (pen)
T. Gudelj 31'
12/6/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 18De Geusselt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

MVV40%
×Draw23%
Vitesse38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MVV
1.74
Vitesse
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

MVV
1.39
Vitesse
1.51

allows per match

MVV
1.89
Vitesse
2.09

finishing

MVV+0.21scores more
Vitesse+0.49scores more

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MVV ↓

Vitesse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

MVV or draw
62%
MVV or Vitesse
77%
Draw or Vitesse
60%

Winning margin

MVV wins by 2+
20%
Vitesse wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

MVV 1+ goals
82%
MVV 2+ goals
52%
MVV 3+ goals
25%
Vitesse 1+ goals
82%
Vitesse 2+ goals
51%
Vitesse 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

MVV (draw refunded)
51%
Vitesse (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MVV at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.09 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MVV attack 1.39 + Vitesse defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.74

Vitesse attack 1.51 + MVV defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

MVV scores more
40%
level
23%
Vitesse scores more
38%

MVV at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "MVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
R. MatthysMVVMVV · G
7.9

Match Events

14'
Wout Coomans
16'
Marcus Steffen
31'
T. Gudelj↳ I. Yegoian
33'
Anass Zarrouk
41'
M. Tielemans← A. Zarrouk
57'
B. Smeets↳ C. Mmaee
68'
Ozgur Aktas
70'
R. Esajas← R. Buifrahi
70'
A. Visser← T. Gudelj
70'
J. de Beer← G. van Zwam
81'
R. Esajas
86'
Bryan Smeets
88'
D. Hoogewerf← J. Bakker
88'
A. BüttnerPenalty
89'
D. Tehubijuluw← L. Schenk
89'
G. de Regt← M. Jonathans

Possession

49%MVV

Shots

17MVV

Pass accuracy

49%MVV

Statistics

MVVVitesse
Overview
49%Possession51%
17Total Shots13
7Corners2
21Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots13
9On Target8
7Off Target3
1Blocked2
12Inside Box5
5Outside Box8
Passing
49%Possession51%
376Total Passes396
267Accurate Passes296
71%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
7Saves7
Discipline
21Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: MVV vs Vitesse

MVV and Vitesse drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on December 6, 2024.

Goals: T. Gudelj (31'), B. Smeets (57'), R. Esajas (81'), A. Büttner (88' pen).

Vitesse controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at De Geusselt in Maastricht.