Vitesse 2–0 Jong AZ: Result & Stats

Vitesse

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jong AZ

D. Hoogewerf 71', 45'

2/27/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 29GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vitesse62%

×Draw21%

Jong AZ17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchJong AZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.93

Vitesse

2.02

Jong AZ

0.93

Vitesse creates 117% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.97

creates per match

0.84

1.02

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Vitesse

1.97

Jong AZ

0.84

allows per match

Vitesse

1.02

Jong AZ

2.08

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Vitesse-0.19scores less

Jong AZ+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Jong AZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

83%

Vitesse or Jong AZ

79%

Draw or Jong AZ

38%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

38%

Jong AZ wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

87%

Vitesse 2+ goals

60%

Vitesse 3+ goals

33%

Jong AZ 1+ goals

61%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

24%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

79%

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.97 + Jong AZ defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.02

Jong AZ attack 0.84 + Vitesse defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vitesse scores more

62%

level

21%

Jong AZ scores more

17%

Vitesse at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Hoogewerf

Vitesse · M

9.5

Match Events

45'

D. Hoogewerf

46'

R. Ichihara← M. Dekker

46'

46'

60'

63'

64'

64'

M. Schikora← A. Tahaui

67'

Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz

70'

W. Bouziane← A. Smits

71'

D. Hoogewerf↳ N. Bannis

76'

João Pinto

82'

D. van der Klaauw← J. Zwart

85'

C. Olde Keizer← A. Buttner

85'

Y. Ranon← D. Hoogewerf

89'

Y. Ouallil← R. Schwarz

90+1'

Youssef Ouallil

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitesseJong

Overview

48%Possession52%

21Total Shots8

1.80Expected Goals (xG)0.43

7Corners1

10Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots8

4On Target3

7Off Target3

10Blocked2

7Inside Box3

14Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

418Total Passes471

357Accurate Passes408

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1