Jong AZ 0–1 Vitesse: Result & Stats

Jong AZ

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vitesse

M. Jonathans 56'

9/13/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 6AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jong AZ44%

×Draw23%

Vitesse33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AZExpected goals in this matchVitesse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.52

Jong AZ

1.79

Vitesse

1.52

Jong AZ creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.66

creates per match

1.48

1.55

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Jong AZ

1.66

Vitesse

1.48

allows per match

Jong AZ

1.55

Vitesse

1.92

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Jong AZ-0.28scores less

Vitesse+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Vitesse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw

67%

Jong AZ or Vitesse

77%

Draw or Vitesse

56%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+

24%

Vitesse wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals

83%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

53%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

26%

Vitesse 1+ goals

78%

Vitesse 2+ goals

45%

Vitesse 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

57%

Vitesse (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.55 · 8 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.66 + Vitesse defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vitesse attack 1.48 + Jong AZ defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jong AZ scores more

44%

level

23%

Vitesse scores more

33%

Jong AZ at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

T. Bramel

Vitesse · G

8.7

Match Events

38'

T. Macheras← D. Hoogewerf

45+2'

Dave Kwakman

54'

Angelos Tsingaras

56'

M. Jonathans↳ A. Tsingaras

67'

A. Smits← L. Zeefuik

67'

J. Kalisvaart← E. Poku

67'

J. Oerip← E. Mastoras

77'

K. Toppenberg← R. Atikallah

77'

J. van Aken← M. Engel

77'

G. de Regt← A. Visser

78'

E. Cornelisse← M. Tielemans

85'

G. Büttner← T. Macheras

85'

T. Gudelj← M. Jonathans

90+3'

Kees Smit

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongVitesse

Overview

61%Possession39%

9Total Shots6

4Corners2

14Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots6

6On Target3

2Off Target3

1Blocked0

6Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

555Total Passes347

469Accurate Passes270

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls19

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3