Vitesse 2–1 Helmond Sport: Result & Stats

Vitesse

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Helmond Sport

A. Visser 69'

M. Jonathans 58'

M. Mallahi 56'

11/29/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 17GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Vitesse47%

×Draw26%

Helmond Sport27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchHelmond Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.07

Vitesse

1.48

Helmond Sport

1.07

Vitesse creates 38% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.78

creates per match

1.16

0.99

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Vitesse

1.78

Helmond Sport

1.16

allows per match

Vitesse

0.99

Helmond Sport

1.19

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Vitesse-0.53scores less

Helmond Sport-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Helmond Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

73%

Vitesse or Helmond Sport

74%

Draw or Helmond Sport

53%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

23%

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

77%

Vitesse 2+ goals

43%

Vitesse 3+ goals

19%

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

66%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

29%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

63%

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 8 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.78 + Helmond Sport defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Helmond Sport attack 1.16 + Vitesse defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vitesse scores more

47%

level

26%

Helmond Sport scores more

27%

Vitesse at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Jonathans

Vitesse · F

8.9

Match Events

29'

J. Ogenia← L. Daneels

56'

M. Mallahi↳ E. Ostrc

58'

M. Jonathans↳ I. Yegoian

68'

A. Visser← T. Gudelj

69'

A. Visser↳ M. Jonathans

72'

G. de Regt← M. Jonathans

75'

Mats Egbring

79'

T. Essakkati← E. Ostrc

79'

A. Doudah← A. Van Himbeeck

79'

H. Ingason← S. Bisselink

85'

L. Postma← A. Zarrouk

86'

A. Tsingaras← I. Yegoian

89'

Mees Kreekels

89'

Tobias Pachonik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitesseHelmond

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots13

9Corners8

11Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots13

10On Target4

7Off Target7

3Blocked2

17Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

387Total Passes323

307Accurate Passes235

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

5Offsides1