Helmond Sport 3–0 Vitesse: Result & Stats

Helmond Sport

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Vitesse

T. Golliard 62'

A. van den Hurk 33'

A. Doudah 8'

2/21/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 27Stadion De Braak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Helmond Sport40%

×Draw23%

Vitesse37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Helmond SportExpected goals in this matchVitesse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.59

Helmond Sport

1.67

Vitesse

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.26

creates per match

1.51

1.68

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Helmond Sport

1.26

Vitesse

1.51

allows per match

Helmond Sport

1.68

Vitesse

2.09

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.24scores more

Vitesse+0.49scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

Vitesse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw

63%

Helmond Sport or Vitesse

77%

Draw or Vitesse

60%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

20%

Vitesse wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

81%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

50%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

23%

Vitesse 1+ goals

80%

Vitesse 2+ goals

47%

Vitesse 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

52%

Vitesse (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 8 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.09 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.26 + Vitesse defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vitesse attack 1.51 + Helmond Sport defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Helmond Sport scores more

40%

level

23%

Vitesse scores more

37%

Helmond Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Helmond Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

A. Doudah

Helmond Sport · M

9.0

Match Events

8'

A. Doudah

33'

A. van den Hurk↳ L. Daneels

36'

44'

53'

54'

54'

E. Cornelisse← L. Postma

62'

T. Golliard↳ A. Doudah

63'

Theodosis Macheras

63'

H. Ingason← T. Golliard

63'

J. Ogenia← T. Essakkati

72'

A. Van Himbeeck← A. Doudah

73'

S. van Duivenbooden← T. Macheras

73'

D. Hoogewerf← A. Tsingaras

73'

A. Visser← B. Huisman

86'

S. Bisselink← A. van den Hurk

86'

E. Ostrc← A. Dizdarević

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HelmondVitesse

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots10

3Corners6

18Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots10

8On Target3

1Off Target4

0Blocked3

6Inside Box2

3Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

368Total Passes355

288Accurate Passes276

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

6Offsides2