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Vitesse vs Fortuna Sittard — Eredivisie 2018

Vitesse
Vitesse
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
10/9/2022EredivisieEredivisie · Round 9GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Vitesse52%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitesse
1.86
Fortuna Sittard
1.21

Vitesse creates 54% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 132 away

creates per match

Vitesse
1.57
Fortuna Sittard
1.02

allows per match

Vitesse
1.39
Fortuna Sittard
2.15

finishing

Vitesse+0.00on par
Fortuna Sittard+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Fortuna Sittard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw
75%
Vitesse or Fortuna Sittard
77%
Draw or Fortuna Sittard
48%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+
30%
Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals
84%
Vitesse 2+ goals
55%
Vitesse 3+ goals
28%
Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals
70%
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals
34%
Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)
68%
Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.39 · 101 matches

Fortuna Sittard away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.15 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.57 + Fortuna Sittard defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.86

Fortuna Sittard attack 1.02 + Vitesse defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vitesse scores more
52%
level
23%
Fortuna Sittard scores more
25%

Vitesse at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Vitesse 1–2 Fortuna Sittard

Fortuna Sittard beat Vitesse 2-1 in Eredivisie on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.