Fortuna Sittard 1–2 Vitesse: Result & Stats

Fortuna Sittard

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Vitesse

5/11/2022

Eredivisie · Round 33Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Fortuna Sittard41%

×Draw24%

Vitesse35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna SittardExpected goals in this matchVitesse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.45

Fortuna Sittard

1.58

Vitesse

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 102 away

1.45

creates per match

1.31

1.58

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.45

Vitesse

1.31

allows per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.58

Vitesse

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Sittard+0.00on par

Vitesse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Sittard ↓

Vitesse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fortuna Sittard or draw

65%

Fortuna Sittard or Vitesse

76%

Draw or Vitesse

59%

Winning margin

Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+

20%

Vitesse wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals

79%

Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals

47%

Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals

21%

Vitesse 1+ goals

77%

Vitesse 2+ goals

42%

Vitesse 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)

54%

Vitesse (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Sittard at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.58 · 132 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Sittard attack 1.45 + Vitesse defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vitesse attack 1.31 + Fortuna Sittard defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortuna Sittard scores more

41%

level

24%

Vitesse scores more

35%

Fortuna Sittard at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortuna Sittard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff