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Vitesse vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Vitesse
Vitesse
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC OSS
FC OSS
11/2/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 13GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Vitesse56%
×Draw22%
FC OSS22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitesse
1.91
FC OSS
1.12

Vitesse creates 71% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Vitesse
1.97
FC OSS
1.22

allows per match

Vitesse
1.02
FC OSS
1.85

finishing

Vitesse-0.19scores less
FC OSS-0.22scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw
78%
Vitesse or FC OSS
78%
Draw or FC OSS
44%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+
32%
FC OSS wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals
85%
Vitesse 2+ goals
57%
Vitesse 3+ goals
30%
FC OSS 1+ goals
67%
FC OSS 2+ goals
31%
FC OSS 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)
72%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

FC OSS away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.85 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.97 + FC OSS defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.91

FC OSS attack 1.22 + Vitesse defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vitesse scores more
56%
level
22%
FC OSS scores more
22%

Vitesse at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
T. BramelVitesseVitesse · G
7.9

Match Events

23'
Arthur Allemeersch
25'
Giovanni van Zwam
37'
J. Bakker← G. van Zwam
46'
T. Gudelj← A. Visser
46'
E. Cornelisse← M. Tielemans
69'
G. de Regt← T. Macheras
70'
T. Wildeboer← A. Stensrud
71'
Justin Bakker
71'
J. Zimmerman← M. Remans
80'
J. Van Bost← T. Cox
80'
T. van der Werff← A. Allemeersch
84'
S. van Duivenbooden← I. Yegoian
88'
Xander Lambrix
90+1'
M. van Rooijen← M. Esajas

Possession

64%Vitesse

Shots

12Vitesse

Pass accuracy

55%Vitesse

Statistics

VitesseFC
Overview
64%Possession36%
12Total Shots12
3Corners7
13Fouls21
Shots
12Total Shots12
2On Target5
6Off Target4
4Blocked3
6Inside Box8
6Outside Box4
Passing
64%Possession36%
512Total Passes279
421Accurate Passes184
82%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls21
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Vitesse vs FC OSS

Vitesse and FC OSS drew 0-0 in Eerste Divisie on November 2, 2024.

Vitesse controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.