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FC OSS vs Vitesse — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC OSS
FC OSS
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vitesse
Vitesse
L. Slagveer 11'
J. Pinto 59'
E. Huth 50'
2/6/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 26Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC OSS41%
×Draw23%
Vitesse36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC OSS
1.73
Vitesse
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC OSS
1.54
Vitesse
1.48

allows per match

FC OSS
1.71
Vitesse
1.92

finishing

FC OSS+0.17scores more
Vitesse+0.23scores more

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Vitesse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw
64%
FC OSS or Vitesse
77%
Draw or Vitesse
59%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+
22%
Vitesse wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals
82%
FC OSS 2+ goals
52%
FC OSS 3+ goals
25%
Vitesse 1+ goals
80%
Vitesse 2+ goals
47%
Vitesse 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)
54%
Vitesse (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.54 + Vitesse defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Vitesse attack 1.48 + FC OSS defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC OSS scores more
41%
level
23%
Vitesse scores more
36%

FC OSS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC OSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. SlagveerFC OSSFC OSS · F
8.2

Match Events

11'
L. Slagveer
20'
Delano Vianello
24'
Mart Remans
37'
Maxim Mariani
40'
Ilounga Pata
45'
Dillon Hoogerwerf
48'
Solomon Bonnah
50'
E. Huth↳ J. Pinto
59'
J. Pinto↳ D. Hoogewerf
68'
M. Hinoke← L. Slagveer
69'
M. Esajas← D. Vianello
69'
N. Pinto← B. Van Hove
70'
N. Bannis← E. Huth
70'
A. Tahaui← D. Hoogewerf
76'
T. Dekker← I. Pata
76'
S. Doucoure← M. Remans
81'
Lars Mol
86'
C. Olde Keizer← S. Bonnah
86'
N. Zonneveld← R. Schwarz
90+3'
Y. Ouallil← J. Pinto

Possession

52%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCVitesse
Overview
52%Possession48%
14Total Shots12
2.03Expected Goals (xG)0.78
9Corners5
16Fouls26
Shots
14Total Shots12
5On Target3
5Off Target4
4Blocked5
12Inside Box6
2Outside Box6
Passing
52%Possession48%
368Total Passes336
291Accurate Passes262
79%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls26
5Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: FC OSS 1–2 Vitesse

Vitesse beat FC OSS 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 6, 2026.

Goals: L. Slagveer (11'), E. Huth (50'), J. Pinto (59').

FC OSS controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Frans Heesen Stadion in Oss.