Viterbese Castrense U19 2–3 Lazio U19

Viterbese Castrense U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Lazio U19

12/10/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 12Campo Sportivo Comunale Ronciglione United

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Viterbese Castrense U1926%

×Draw21%

Lazio U1952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viterbese Castrense U19Expected goals in this matchLazio U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.05

Viterbese Castrense U19

1.41

Lazio U19

2.05

Lazio U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

1.60

creates per match

1.97

2.13

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Viterbese Castrense U19

1.60

Lazio U19

1.97

allows per match

Viterbese Castrense U19

2.13

Lazio U19

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viterbese Castrense U19+0.00on par

Lazio U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viterbese Castrense U19 ↓

Lazio U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Viterbese Castrense U19 or draw

48%

Viterbese Castrense U19 or Lazio U19

79%

Draw or Lazio U19

74%

Winning margin

Viterbese Castrense U19 wins by 2+

12%

Lazio U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Viterbese Castrense U19 1+ goals

76%

Viterbese Castrense U19 2+ goals

41%

Viterbese Castrense U19 3+ goals

17%

Lazio U19 1+ goals

87%

Lazio U19 2+ goals

61%

Lazio U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Viterbese Castrense U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viterbese Castrense U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Lazio U19 away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viterbese Castrense U19 attack 1.60 + Lazio U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Lazio U19 attack 1.97 + Viterbese Castrense U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Viterbese Castrense U19 scores more

26%

level

21%

Lazio U19 scores more

52%

Lazio U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lazio U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff