Lazio U19 4–1 Viterbese Castrense U19

Lazio U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Viterbese Castrense U19

4/22/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 27Centro Sportivo Campo Aquile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lazio U1970%

×Draw18%

Viterbese Castrense U1912%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lazio U19Expected goals in this matchViterbese Castrense U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

0.83

Lazio U19

2.32

Viterbese Castrense U19

0.83

Lazio U19 creates 180% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

2.64

creates per match

0.80

0.86

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Lazio U19

2.64

Viterbese Castrense U19

0.80

allows per match

Lazio U19

0.86

Viterbese Castrense U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lazio U19+0.00on par

Viterbese Castrense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio U19 ↓

Viterbese Castrense U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lazio U19 or draw

88%

Lazio U19 or Viterbese Castrense U19

82%

Draw or Viterbese Castrense U19

30%

Winning margin

Lazio U19 wins by 2+

47%

Viterbese Castrense U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Lazio U19 1+ goals

90%

Lazio U19 2+ goals

67%

Lazio U19 3+ goals

40%

Viterbese Castrense U19 1+ goals

56%

Viterbese Castrense U19 2+ goals

20%

Viterbese Castrense U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)

86%

Viterbese Castrense U19 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio U19 at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

Viterbese Castrense U19 away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio U19 attack 2.64 + Viterbese Castrense U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.32

Viterbese Castrense U19 attack 0.80 + Lazio U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lazio U19 scores more

70%

level

18%

Viterbese Castrense U19 scores more

12%

Lazio U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lazio U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff