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Vita Club vs Rangers — Ligue 1 2019

Vita Club
Vita Club
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rangers
Rangers
11/19/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade des Martyrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Vita Club51%
×Draw29%
Rangers20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vita Club
1.28
Rangers
0.68

Vita Club creates 88% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 83 away

creates per match

Vita Club
1.38
Rangers
0.86

allows per match

Vita Club
0.50
Rangers
1.19

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par
Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw
80%
Vita Club or Rangers
71%
Draw or Rangers
49%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+
24%
Rangers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals
72%
Vita Club 2+ goals
37%
Vita Club 3+ goals
14%
Rangers 1+ goals
49%
Rangers 2+ goals
15%
Rangers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)
72%
Rangers (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 98 matches

Rangers away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.19 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.38 + Rangers defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rangers attack 0.86 + Vita Club defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vita Club scores more
51%
level
29%
Rangers scores more
20%

Vita Club at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vita Club vs Rangers

Vita Club and Rangers drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs in Kinshasa.