Rangers 1–1 Vita Club: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Rangers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vita Club

5/8/2025

Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 3Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Rangers27%

×Draw29%

Vita Club44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RangersExpected goals in this matchVita Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.23

Rangers

0.90

Vita Club

1.23

Vita Club creates 37% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 93 away

1.03

creates per match

1.33

1.14

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Rangers

1.03

Vita Club

1.33

allows per match

Rangers

1.14

Vita Club

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par

Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Vita Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Rangers or draw

56%

Rangers or Vita Club

71%

Draw or Vita Club

73%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+

9%

Vita Club wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals

59%

Rangers 2+ goals

23%

Rangers 3+ goals

6%

Vita Club 1+ goals

71%

Vita Club 2+ goals

35%

Vita Club 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)

38%

Vita Club (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 1.03 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Vita Club attack 1.33 + Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rangers scores more

27%

level

29%

Vita Club scores more

44%

Vita Club at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff