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Vita Club vs Maniema Union — Ligue 1 2019

Vita Club
Vita Club
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maniema Union
Maniema Union
11/2/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade des Martyrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Vita Club37%
×Draw31%
Maniema Union32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vita Club
1.04
Maniema Union
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 93 away

creates per match

Vita Club
1.38
Maniema Union
1.42

allows per match

Vita Club
0.50
Maniema Union
0.70

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par
Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

Maniema Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw
68%
Vita Club or Maniema Union
69%
Draw or Maniema Union
63%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+
14%
Maniema Union wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals
65%
Vita Club 2+ goals
28%
Vita Club 3+ goals
9%
Maniema Union 1+ goals
62%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
25%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)
53%
Maniema Union (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 98 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.38 + Maniema Union defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.04

Maniema Union attack 1.42 + Vita Club defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vita Club scores more
37%
level
31%
Maniema Union scores more
32%

Vita Club at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Vita Club 0–0 Maniema Union

Vita Club and Maniema Union drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs in Kinshasa.