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Maniema Union vs Vita Club — Ligue 1 2019

Maniema Union
Maniema Union
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vita Club
Vita Club
1/14/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Maniema Union43%
×Draw29%
Vita Club28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maniema Union
1.21
Vita Club
0.92

Maniema Union creates 32% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 93 away

creates per match

Maniema Union
1.65
Vita Club
1.33

allows per match

Maniema Union
0.50
Vita Club
0.76

finishing

Maniema Union+0.00on par
Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maniema Union ↓

Vita Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maniema Union or draw
72%
Maniema Union or Vita Club
71%
Draw or Vita Club
57%

Winning margin

Maniema Union wins by 2+
19%
Vita Club wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Maniema Union 1+ goals
70%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
34%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
12%
Vita Club 1+ goals
60%
Vita Club 2+ goals
23%
Vita Club 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maniema Union (draw refunded)
60%
Vita Club (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maniema Union at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maniema Union attack 1.65 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.21

Vita Club attack 1.33 + Maniema Union defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maniema Union scores more
43%
level
29%
Vita Club scores more
28%

Maniema Union at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maniema Union vs Vita Club

Maniema Union and Vita Club drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on January 14, 2026.