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Vita Club vs Dauphins Noirs — Ligue 1 2019

Vita Club
Vita Club
CANC
14:30
Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
3/10/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Vita Club55%
×Draw28%
Dauphins Noirs17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vita Club
1.37
Dauphins Noirs
0.64

Vita Club creates 114% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 77 away

creates per match

Vita Club
1.38
Dauphins Noirs
0.78

allows per match

Vita Club
0.50
Dauphins Noirs
1.36

finishing

Vita Club+0.00on par
Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vita Club ↓

Dauphins Noirs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vita Club or draw
83%
Vita Club or Dauphins Noirs
72%
Draw or Dauphins Noirs
45%

Winning margin

Vita Club wins by 2+
27%
Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vita Club 1+ goals
75%
Vita Club 2+ goals
40%
Vita Club 3+ goals
16%
Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
47%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
14%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vita Club (draw refunded)
76%
Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vita Club at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 98 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vita Club attack 1.38 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + Vita Club defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vita Club scores more
55%
level
28%
Dauphins Noirs scores more
17%

Vita Club at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vita Club vs Dauphins Noirs — Match Preview

Vita Club face Dauphins Noirs on March 10, 2025 in this Ligue 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vita Club host Dauphins Noirs at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.