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Dauphins Noirs vs Vita Club — Ligue 1 2019

Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
FT
1 – 1
Vita Club
Vita Club
5/1/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 4Stade de l'Unité de Virunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Dauphins Noirs30%
×Draw31%
Vita Club39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dauphins Noirs
0.91
Vita Club
1.08

Vita Club creates 19% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 93 away

creates per match

Dauphins Noirs
1.06
Vita Club
1.33

allows per match

Dauphins Noirs
0.84
Vita Club
0.76

finishing

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par
Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dauphins Noirs ↓

Vita Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dauphins Noirs or draw
61%
Dauphins Noirs or Vita Club
69%
Draw or Vita Club
70%

Winning margin

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
11%
Vita Club wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
60%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
23%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
6%
Vita Club 1+ goals
66%
Vita Club 2+ goals
29%
Vita Club 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
44%
Vita Club (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dauphins Noirs at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 69 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dauphins Noirs attack 1.06 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Vita Club attack 1.33 + Dauphins Noirs defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dauphins Noirs scores more
30%
level
31%
Vita Club scores more
39%

Vita Club at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Dauphins Noirs 1–1 Vita Club

Dauphins Noirs and Vita Club drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité de Virunga in Goma.