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Vitória de Sernache vs Oliveira Hospital — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
5/17/2026Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vitória de Sernache23%
×Draw42%
Oliveira Hospital34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória de Sernache
0.50
Oliveira Hospital
0.67

Oliveira Hospital creates 34% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vitória de Sernache
0.33
Oliveira Hospital
1.00

allows per match

Vitória de Sernache
0.33
Oliveira Hospital
0.67

finishing

Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Under
  • Under89
  • Over11

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

81%No
  • No81
  • Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória de Sernache ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–031%
0–121%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (31%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
69%31%1.5
33%67%2.5
11%89%3.5
3%97%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Vitória de Sernache or draw
66%
Vitória de Sernache or Oliveira Hospital
58%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
77%

Winning margin

Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
5%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
39%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
9%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
1%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
49%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
15%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
41%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
9%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória de Sernache at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória de Sernache attack 0.33 + Oliveira Hospital defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.00 + Vitória de Sernache defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Vitória de Sernache scores more
23%
level
42%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
34%

Oliveira Hospital at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
42'
82'
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round: Vitória de Sernache 0–0 Oliveira Hospital

Vitória de Sernache and Oliveira Hospital drew 0-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on May 17, 2026.