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Oliveira Hospital vs Vitória de Sernache — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
2/10/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 12Estádio Municipal de Oliveira do Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Oliveira Hospital48%
×Draw24%
Vitória de Sernache28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oliveira Hospital
1.68
Vitória de Sernache
1.23

Oliveira Hospital creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Oliveira Hospital
1.45
Vitória de Sernache
1.55

allows per match

Oliveira Hospital
0.91
Vitória de Sernache
1.91

finishing

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par
Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oliveira Hospital ↓

Vitória de Sernache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Oliveira Hospital or draw
72%
Oliveira Hospital or Vitória de Sernache
76%
Draw or Vitória de Sernache
52%

Winning margin

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
25%
Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
81%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
50%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
24%
Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
71%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
35%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
63%
Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oliveira Hospital at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.45 + Vitória de Sernache defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.55 + Oliveira Hospital defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oliveira Hospital scores more
48%
level
24%
Vitória de Sernache scores more
28%

Oliveira Hospital at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oliveira Hospital vs Vitória de Sernache

Oliveira Hospital beat Vitória de Sernache 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Oliveira do Hospital in Oliveira do Hospital.