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Vista Turbine vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Vista Turbine
Vista Turbine
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
4/18/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vista Turbine46%
×Draw29%
Qashqai Shiraz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vista Turbine
1.25
Qashqai Shiraz
0.83

Vista Turbine creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

creates per match

Vista Turbine
1.17
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

allows per match

Vista Turbine
0.83
Qashqai Shiraz
1.33

finishing

Vista Turbine+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vista Turbine ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vista Turbine or draw
75%
Vista Turbine or Qashqai Shiraz
71%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
54%

Winning margin

Vista Turbine wins by 2+
21%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vista Turbine 1+ goals
71%
Vista Turbine 2+ goals
36%
Vista Turbine 3+ goals
13%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
56%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
20%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vista Turbine (draw refunded)
65%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vista Turbine at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vista Turbine attack 1.17 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Vista Turbine defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vista Turbine scores more
46%
level
29%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
25%

Vista Turbine at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vista Turbine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Vista Turbine 1–1 Qashqai Shiraz

Vista Turbine and Qashqai Shiraz drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.