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Qashqai Shiraz vs Vista Turbine — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
2 – 0
Vista Turbine
Vista Turbine
12/8/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 9Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz45%
×Draw33%
Vista Turbine22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
1.05
Vista Turbine
0.64

Qashqai Shiraz creates 64% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Vista Turbine
0.47

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Vista Turbine
1.18

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Vista Turbine+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Vista Turbine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
78%
Qashqai Shiraz or Vista Turbine
67%
Draw or Vista Turbine
55%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
18%
Vista Turbine wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
65%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
28%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
9%
Vista Turbine 1+ goals
47%
Vista Turbine 2+ goals
14%
Vista Turbine 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
67%
Vista Turbine (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Vista Turbine away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Vista Turbine defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Vista Turbine attack 0.47 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
45%
level
33%
Vista Turbine scores more
22%

Qashqai Shiraz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qashqai Shiraz vs Vista Turbine

Qashqai Shiraz beat Vista Turbine 2-0 in Azadegan League on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.