Vista Turbine 0–2 Kheybar Khorramabad

Vista Turbine

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kheybar Khorramabad

6/2/2022

Azadegan League · Round 33Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vista Turbine35%

×Draw32%

Kheybar Khorramabad33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vista TurbineExpected goals in this matchKheybar Khorramabad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.94

Vista Turbine

0.97

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 67 away

1.17

creates per match

1.04

0.83

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Vista Turbine

1.17

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.04

allows per match

Vista Turbine

0.83

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vista Turbine+0.00on par

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vista Turbine ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Vista Turbine or draw

67%

Vista Turbine or Kheybar Khorramabad

68%

Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad

65%

Winning margin

Vista Turbine wins by 2+

13%

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vista Turbine 1+ goals

62%

Vista Turbine 2+ goals

25%

Vista Turbine 3+ goals

7%

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

61%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

24%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vista Turbine (draw refunded)

51%

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vista Turbine at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vista Turbine attack 1.17 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Vista Turbine defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Vista Turbine scores more

35%

level

32%

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

33%

Vista Turbine at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Vista Turbine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff