Kheybar Khorramabad 3–1 Vista Turbine

Kheybar Khorramabad

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vista Turbine

1/28/2022

Azadegan League · Round 16Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad58%

×Draw27%

Vista Turbine15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kheybar KhorramabadExpected goals in this matchVista Turbine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.56

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.42

Vista Turbine

0.56

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 154% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

0.47

0.66

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.67

Vista Turbine

0.47

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.66

Vista Turbine

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Vista Turbine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Vista Turbine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw

85%

Kheybar Khorramabad or Vista Turbine

73%

Draw or Vista Turbine

42%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

30%

Vista Turbine wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

76%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

41%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

17%

Vista Turbine 1+ goals

43%

Vista Turbine 2+ goals

11%

Vista Turbine 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

80%

Vista Turbine (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Vista Turbine away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Vista Turbine defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Vista Turbine attack 0.47 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

58%

level

27%

Vista Turbine scores more

15%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff