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Vissel Kobe vs Urawa — J1 League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Urawa
Urawa
2/15/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 1Noevir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vissel Kobe53%
×Draw23%
Urawa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.84
Urawa
1.16

Vissel Kobe creates 59% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.34
Urawa
1.42

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.89
Urawa
1.35

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.66scores more
Urawa-0.13scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Urawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
76%
Vissel Kobe or Urawa
77%
Draw or Urawa
47%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
30%
Urawa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
84%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
55%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
28%
Urawa 1+ goals
69%
Urawa 2+ goals
32%
Urawa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
69%
Urawa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.89 · 5 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.34 + Urawa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.84

Urawa attack 1.42 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
53%
level
23%
Urawa scores more
24%

Vissel Kobe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Vissel Kobe 0–0 Urawa

Vissel Kobe and Urawa drew 0-0 in J1 League on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Noevir Stadium in Kobe.