Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Urawa vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
10/4/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 33Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Urawa41%
×Draw26%
Vissel Kobe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.42
Vissel Kobe
1.25

Urawa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 148 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.49
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

Urawa
1.07
Vissel Kobe
1.34

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
67%
Urawa or Vissel Kobe
74%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
59%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
19%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
76%
Urawa 2+ goals
41%
Urawa 3+ goals
17%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
71%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
36%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
55%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.07 · 152 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.49 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Urawa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Urawa scores more
41%
level
26%
Vissel Kobe scores more
33%

Urawa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Urawa 1–0 Vissel Kobe

Urawa beat Vissel Kobe 1-0 in J1 League on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.