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Vissel Kobe vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
5/26/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 16NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Vissel Kobe48%
×Draw27%
Tokyo Verdy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.44
Tokyo Verdy
0.97

Vissel Kobe creates 48% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 46 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
1.57
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
1.08
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
75%
Vissel Kobe or Tokyo Verdy
73%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
52%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
24%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
76%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
42%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
18%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
62%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
25%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
65%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 150 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.57 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
48%
level
27%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
25%

Vissel Kobe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Vissel Kobe 0–1 Tokyo Verdy

Tokyo Verdy beat Vissel Kobe 1-0 in J1 League on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at NOEVIR Stadium Kobe in Kobe.