Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tokyo Verdy vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
11/10/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 36Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tokyo Verdy34%
×Draw26%
Vissel Kobe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.25
Vissel Kobe
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 148 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.17
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.28
Vissel Kobe
1.34

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
61%
Tokyo Verdy or Vissel Kobe
74%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
66%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
15%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
71%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
36%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
13%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
74%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
39%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
47%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.17 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
34%
level
26%
Vissel Kobe scores more
39%

Vissel Kobe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Tokyo Verdy 1–1 Vissel Kobe

Tokyo Verdy and Vissel Kobe drew 1-1 in J1 League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.